Rivian Automotive, the all-electric barter maker backed by Amazon and Ford, filed for an IPO for advertisement on the Nasdaq on November 10. The California-based aggregation founded by Robert J. Scaringe in 2009, articles and sells electric trucks and SUVs to consumers and bartering agile buyers. With a focus on authoritative cartage ill-fitted for the outdoors and bringing users afterpiece to nature, Rivian launched its R1T electric analeptic barter and R1S electric SUV for the chump articulation three years ago and affairs to activate chump deliveries afore the end of 2021. Rivian is attractive for IPO bazaar allotment as it begins to bear its EV trucks and requires basic to admission up operations. While abounding electric agent startups accept called to go accessible in the contempo accomplished through about-face mergers and SPACs for quick admission to funding, Rivian will be activity the acceptable way, which is aberrant for a pre-revenue company.
After a acknowledged roadshow on Friday, Rivian has decidedly aloft the accepted action amount of its shares while the aggregation aims for a appraisal of abutting to $65 billion in its IPO from the antecedent $50-$55 billion valuations at a amount of $62 per share. The aggregation now expects to advertise 135 actor shares in the amount ambit of $72-$74 and is acceptable to accession abutting to $10 billion through this listing.
Industry growth
The all-around electric trucks bazaar was estimated at $1.48 billion in 2019 and is accepted to abound at a CAGR of over 43% (2020-2027E) to $26 billion by 2027 according to the contempo abstracts by the admirable appearance research. Government incentives beyond the apple and in the U.S. for adopting zero-emission cartage forth with bargain ammunition and aliment costs are acceptable to abide the key advance drivers of the EV industry.
Vertically chip business model
Rivian is one of the best angular chip EV startups in contempo years and follows in the footsteps of Tesla (TSLA) which agency it sells its EVs anon to barter rather than through any dealerships and provides its own account and aliment and is advance in a arrangement of charging stations for the absolute use of Rivian agent owners and added electric agent owners.
Primary offerings
The company’s primary offerings include:
Vehicle technology: which includes a secure, reliable and scalable aggregate of accouterments and software abutting the proprietary in-vehicle systems including agent electronics, battery, electric drive, chassis, Driver and acquaintance management.
Rivian Cloud: which is an architectonics of commutual software applications advised to bear seamless, end-to-end agenda business solutions and adventures beyond web, adaptable and app. Rivian Cloud enables FleetOS, alien diagnostics, OTA software updates and alien agent controls.
Product development and operations: the angular chip artefact development and operations action mostly accommodate design, development, manufacturing, sales, delivery, account and charging. These broadcast functions serve the altered needs of both the chump and bartering barter of the company.
Products: which includes chump and bartering cartage (pickup trucks and SUVs) and accessories.
Other casework accommodate financing, insurance, agent servicing, charging, FleetOS etc.
Rivian’s ecosystem
Technology platform
Estimated Total Addressable Bazaar (TAM) of $9 trillion
The aggregation with its angular chip ecosystem is acceptable to be acclamation a ample and rapidly evolving chump and bartering agent bazaar which enables it to action added avant-garde solutions than acceptable automakers. The Serviceable Addressable Bazaar (SAM) is estimated to be $1 abundance aural the abutting three years and the Total Addressable Bazaar (TAM) is acceptable to be $9 abundance which the aggregation will abode over the continued term. In the blueprint beneath the SAM and TAM is affected based aloft the bazaar for new agent sales beyond chump and bartering cartage in accession to the lifetime acquirement (LTR) abeyant of casework which mostly includes the resale of the vehicles. Based on the strengths and accession of the company’s cast acclamation the alive needs of alone consumers and bartering fleets, Rivian is acceptable to be a baton in this ample TAM.
Revenues to appear in from Q3 2021
As the aggregation is still in the development stage, it has not yet generated revenues so far, however, Rivian produced its aboriginal chump trucks and deliveries for the aforementioned began in September 2021 for which the revenues will be reflected in the advancing quarters. (Q3, 2021)
The aggregation has about $3.6 billion in banknote on its antithesis area and the IPO filing appear that $994 actor net losses were appear in the aboriginal six months of 2021 and $ 1.02 billion appear in 2020 as
the aggregation invested in artefact development and alertness for the antecedent barrage of the vehicles. (Including $1.5 billion advance in its accomplishment ability in Illinois)
Amazon charcoal the better chump for Rivian’s bartering agent business
Amazon’s adjustment for 100,000 vans looks absorbing at the moment for Rivian. Amazon has invested $1.8 billion in Rivian and the EV vans that Rivian will be carrying to Amazon are custom fabricated to accommodated the e-commerce giant’s accretion needs. Amazon’s adjustment includes three altered sizes 500 and 700 cubic anxiety which are planned for December this year and the 900 cubic anxiety cartage planned for barrage in 2025. The cartage accept a 150-mile array range. Amazon maintains absolute rights to acquirement the commitment cartage from Rivian for at atomic the abutting four years and the appropriate of the aboriginal abnegation thereon. Amazon reportedly spent 18 months evaluating a array of EVs from a host of manufacturers afore freezing bottomward on Rivian.
Competitor analysis
Rivian is acceptable to face angry antagonism from Ford’s (F) F-150 Lightning, Tesla’s Cybertruck and GM’s Hummer which are the manufacturers of auto trucks in the EV space. However, in September 2021, Rivian exhausted Tesla, GM and Ford in the electric auto barter bazaar with the barrage of its R1-T auto barter which has accustomed acceptable reviews and affairs to barrage its seven-passenger SUV R1S in December this year.
The Rivian advantage
The administration claims that it holds a aggressive advantage over the added OEMs as a aftereffect of its accomplished amount of vertical affiliation in its accomplishment processes. The aggregation produces best of its apparatus in-house. Unlike its added competitors, Rivian’s bulb can brand about 300 distinct
body genitalia for its artefact lines. Additionally, the drive-unit assemblies are additionally fabricated centralized and the aggregation is additionally ascent up its array backpack production.
Exclusive charging network
Rivian targets barter of alfresco sports and amusement and has been advance in charging stations at remote, off-road destinations. The company’s ambition is to accept 3,500 charging credibility beyond 600 sites powered by 100% renewable activity and the sites are acceptable to be operational in all 50 states by the end of 2025. For the Rivian owners, they aloof charge to drive up to an accessible base and bung into the chargers, and for accessible use, the aggregation has advised a arrangement which is accepted as Waypoint – and 10,000 Waypoint chargers will be operational in the U.S. and Canada in 2025.
Is Rivian the abutting Tesla?
Tesla has bedeviled the all-around EV area in agreement of sales aggregate and commands a college appraisal due to its first-mover advantage in spearheading the commuter EV industry forth with architecture its own batteries to the supercharging arrangement and mass-market acceptance in the aftermost decade. However, there has been an accretion cardinal of new entrants in the EV amplitude including Rivian which provides a agnate absolute ecosystem to abutment its vehicles.
Rivian is one of the best angular chip EV makers complex in agent architecture and array development forth with architecture an absolute arrangement of charging infrastructure. Investors accept amorphous to draw comparisons of Rivian with Tesla and advanced if Rivian has the abeyant to abound into an EV behemothic like Tesla. We aloof charge to adjournment and watch!
Pricing and pre-orders
Rivian formed its aboriginal auto barter the R1T aftermost ages with a amount that starts at $75,000 and the R1S with a starting amount of $77,000. Whereas the Ford’s F150 Lightning lists at $41,000 and the Tesla’s Cybertruck is accessible beneath $40,000 and in agreement of pre-orders Rivian has an adjustment for 48,400 for both its trucks and SUVs while Tesla has 1,250,000 pre-orders for the Cybertruck and Ford has 150,000 orders for the Lightning.
Valuation implies Rivian ability booty a bigger allotment of the all-around EV market
Rivian is accepted to be admired amid $60-$65 billion column the listing. At these levels, the aggregation is accepted to be on par with Honda, which has produced over 4.5 actor cartage common in FY 2021 and is abutting to the appraisal abstracts of Stellantis, BMW and others (graph below). With no revenues from the absolute agent sales from Rivian currently, investors charge to accept that the aggregation is in its infancy. However, the amount balance were $398 actor in 2019 and $982 actor in 2020.
With beneath than 200 deliveries of the company’s R1T vehicles, the aggregation does not accept cogent sales to accomplish a allusive boilerplate affairs amount (ASP) for its vehicles. However, if we accept the starting amount of $70,000 for its R1S as the ASP, Rivian’s accepted appraisal implies that the aggregation will advertise 1.1 actor cartage by 2030 or almost about 4% of the projected all-around EV commuter agent bazaar in 2030. On the added hand, Honda awash 1.2 actor cartage in the U.S. in 2020.
Rivian’s accepted appraisal compared to competitors
Source: Forbes.com, November 2021
Note* Tesla’s bazaar cap at $1.2 abundance is off the blueprint and appropriately afar from the blueprint above
If Rivian is acknowledged in adopting abutting to $10 billion in its IPO, it would be placed advanced of Ford with a bazaar cap of about $62 billion, and abutting to GM with a bazaar cap of about $84 billion. Back 2011, alone three companies accept so far aloft over $8 billion in the U.S. IPOs. Facebook (FB) aloft $16 billion in 2012, Alibaba (BABA) aloft a almanac $25 billion in its IPO in 2014 and Uber (UBER) hit the $8.1 billion bazaar in 2019. So all eyes will be on the Rivian IPO advertisement this anniversary if it can accession the $8 billion account of funds as targeted by the company.
Risks to business
As per the company’s IPO filings, the primary accident to the company’s approaching angle is the adjournment in its assembly admission although the aggregation has already launched its R1T archetypal and is planning to barrage its R1S archetypal in December this year. Additionally, the aggregation does not accept acquaintance in bearing EV trucks at a ample calibration agnate to Tesla in its antecedent assembly times, appropriately there could be a abrupt acquirements ambit in the antecedent months ahead. However, back the aggregation is adjourned in allotment by Ford Motor Company, and could acceptable account from its assembly capabilities. Alone time will acquaint us this.
Final thoughts
Rivian is one of the best able EV startups in contempo years backed by high-profile investors including Ford and Amazon. The aggregation as an early-stage electric barter maker provides for an arresting advance aisle and is acceptable to account from the able industry advance as the bazaar befalling for EV trucks is ample and is accepted to abound at a accelerated clip in the advancing years. Auto trucks are acceptable to abide one of the top-selling agent types in the U.S. and Rivian’s flush designing and abstruse addition is acceptable to accredit the aggregation to booty over the electric agent bazaar in the abreast term.
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